Agent Vinod was released last week. The movie had been able to keep its traction on FTI and has performed as predicted by us, netting about Rs 30 crore in the first week. This movie does not really have the audience interest to get it going with significant numbers in the next couple of weeks.
I expect just Housefull 2 to make a significant impact during the month of April. The other movies are quite low on FTI. Tezz is currently 3.3 on FTI and Bittoo Boss is 1.3. Housefull 2 continues to maintain its traction with an FTI of 40.
I estimate the PoP value of the theatrical trailer of Housefull 2 to be around 54 which is quite high. When we compare the FTI of 40 with the PoP value of 54, it appears that the movie could have done with more presence in the media. This is indicated in the source of awareness table. In the films that have tracked successful films have better numbers on hoardings and theatre trailers. We have seen earlier the growing number of ‘Internet’ responses. The value of 21 is quite heartening since Internet is far less expensive compared to the conventional mass media and the exposure of the film is to an audience that is interested in films, unlike television which is intrusive and not under viewers’ control.
Even though Housefull 2 has tracked well and has maintained an FTI of around 40, two other numbers need to be taken in to account for assessing its opening weekend and opening week box office estimates. The first number is the Spontaneous Awareness, which is just around 10.0 per cent. For a film that is tracking at an FTI of 40, this is low. It needs to climb to 15-18 per cent in the next one week to open well. Also, the distribution of the Urgency, measured by DPSOWE, is heavily loaded on ‘Will probably See’. The DPSOWE is a critical parameter in Film Track. A 60:40 ratio in ‘Will definitely See’ and ‘Will probably See’ split is necessary for a good opening. However, the ratio in Housefull 2 is almost 30:65 with another 5 per cent pushed down.
In addition to the parameter issues above, Housefull 2 will open in the IPL season. IPL may have lost the original equity, when Lalit Modi was spearheading the show, but it can still deliver a powerful punch to the Indian Hindi film audience. With Mumbai Indians playing on Friday, Delhi Dare Devils on Saturday and Kings Punjab on Sunday, the major markets have an optional attraction to Housefull 2. Will the Comic Dozen of Housefull 2 play better than IPL teams?