Last week has been the story of Agneepath. Despite doubters who did not expect the remake of a not so successful first attempt, the movie made a massive opening. It has collected a little over Rs 70 crores in the first seven days and may snail past Rs 100 crores. The industry has been celebrating the first hit of this year with Sanjay Dutt in the limelight.
The movies to watch out in February is Ek Main Aur Ekk Tu, Tera Naal Love Ho Gaya and Jodi Breakers. The FTI of these three movies has gained significantly in the last one week. In my estimate the FT numbers of both Ek Main … and Tera Naal Love.. will show marginal improvements over the next few weeks.
Most films coming in to the FTI range of 40-45 tend to be big openers. In the case of Ek Main..., I do not see a trend in DPSOWE that indicates a big opening for the film. The FTI numbers are more loaded towards fence sitters rather than committed audience.
When we dig a little deeper in to the FT data we find that the television as a source of awareness is less than what we see in most big films. Source of awareness is an important indicator of what people internalise but not necessarily an accurate measure of media effectiveness. It is TV that delivers different audio-visual content of a forthcoming film very effectively. Theatricals, although have a far better quality of impact do not have the requisite reach. The audience profile of the movie is tilted towards women and older adults. With such a profile the movie is expected to draw couples. Movies that draw couples tend to open low on Friday and pick up during the weekend and shift to younger audience during the week.
Tera Naal.. is this Valentine’s Day offer by UTV. The Riteish-Genelia pair will be married by the time the movie hits the screens. Because of the wedding bells they have been in the news, cornering a substantial media space, even though for a very short time. We estimate the FTI of this film to be 24, based on the current data, but the composition of the FTI is not very encouraging. What drives the movie’s audience to watch this film? From the data we have, the story is not a driver, neither is Riteish Deshmukh nor is the genre. The movie’s driver is Genelia D’Souza. With just her generating the interest to watch the movie it will be very tough to get decent opening numbers. With such a driver profile l do not expect the movie to make a significant impact on the box-office.
Jodi Breakers has made an impressive gain in the last one week. In another week, once it stabilises its traction, we will be able to get a better fix on its driver and audience profile.
When I look at the films in March, Agent Vinod, is the movie to watch out for. I estimate the FTI of the movie to be around 54 and I would expect it to settle down to around 40-45 in the coming weeks. The movie has a good FT profile and as the hype increases we will have a better picture of where the movie is headed.